Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions

A retrospective grading Scott's 48 Trump-era predictions (log-loss scoring, letter grades, prediction-market P&L — quadrupled $220). Models excellent epistemic accountability: grades himself harshly (multiple Fs), owns the blindsided-by-the-2016-win and Republican-Party-won't-see-through-him errors. Centerpiece is the detailed vindication of 'You Are Still Crying Wolf' (his most-read post) — evidence that the Trump-as-open-white-supremacist narrative was overblown (hate-crime rates, the hoax incidents, the Charlottesville/'stand back' transcripts, white-supremacist support actually collapsing).

Quality 74 · Strong. Strong: calibration-in-action + a genuinely valuable, memorable Crying-Wolf vindication and error-postmortem; held below the top essays as an inward-looking self-retrospective.

Claude’s paradigm shift 50 · Moderate. Notable: the honest self-grading framework + the media-pareidolia thesis update readers, building on his prior posts.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Within forecasting-accountability discourse; the underlying Crying-Wolf post was far more impactful than this retrospective. =2.