Mantic Monday 6/21/21
Read the original on Astral Codex Ten →
Summary
A Mantic Monday. Metaculus questions (Puerto Rico statehood Senate seats, Bezos anti-aging, crypto-default odds, Prospera's ~0 projected 2035 population), a Polymarket-usability update, and two more substantive threads: Charles Dillon's PredictionBook data (experienced predictors are better and better-calibrated; people score better on longer-horizon questions, maybe because they ask themselves easier far-future questions), and an inflation-predictions section where Scott pleads for economists to make formal quantified predictions (the Summers/Cowen vs Powell/Yglesias divide) and proposes a public webpage recording everyone's stated views so they can't retroactively claim to have been right.
Why this score
Quality 63 · Strong. Solid-plus (63, mid Monday band). The Dillon forecasting-accuracy data and the inflation-accountability plea give it some standalone value; a lighter monthly roundup.
Claude’s paradigm shift 42 · Moderate. Moderate (42). Reports and lightly analyzes others' predictions/data.
Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. 1 — a forecasting roundup; negligible real-world effect.