Highlights From The Comments On Ivermectin
Read the original on Astral Codex Ten →
Summary
Companion to the landmark Ivermectin: MMTYWTK (ACX-199, 88). One of the meatier Highlights companions of the run. Scott's five-part reply to ivmmeta.com's rebuttal is genuinely substantive: he concedes real limitations (didn't review prophylaxis studies, is biased against huge effect sizes and against certain countries' fraud records) but lands a strong methodological crux — ivmmeta treats every directionally-positive paper as 'positive' without regard to statistical significance, which 'is always going to find positive effects' (the same method that 'proves' 19 substances cure COVID). The 'for every problem there is a solution simple, elegant, and wrong' framing of establishment-kludge vs elegant-but-doomed meta-analysis is a real insight. Adds the worms-hypothesis defence (steroids WERE given in trials; strongyloides seroprevalence 5–22%), the small-hadron-collider point about citizens being unable to out-resource official trials, and the striking journalist anecdote (a journalist who'd reached all his same conclusions but was edited down for concision). Political sections (conservative-elite vaccine punting, the lockdown-protest anti-vaxxer) are thoughtful but secondary.
Why this score
Quality 72 · Strong. Strong (top of the Highlights-companion band, ~72, alongside San Fransicko-Highlights 72). Substantial standalone content — the ivmmeta statistical-significance crux and the establishment-kludge-vs-elegant-failure epistemics are original and quotable, well above the bare-companion floor — but it is a comment-response post riding on ACX-199's analysis, not a fresh essay, so it sits below the Strong ceiling.
Claude’s paradigm shift 50 · Moderate. Moderate (50). Sharpens a real methodological point (why abandoning p-values without a replacement guarantees false positives) and popularises the worms mechanism, but builds directly on the parent post and existing meta-science debates.
Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. 1 — a companion commentary; negligible independent real-world effect (the parent MMTYWTK carried the influence).