Predictions For 2022
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Summary
Scott's annual predictions-list installment for 2022 (92 personal/world/tech/COVID/blog predictions, many personal ones redacted), plus a more analytical twist: he takes Vox's '22 Predictions For 2022' and Yglesias's predictions and issues BUY/SELL/HOLD calls against each, explaining where and why he disagrees with the pundits (e.g. selling Vox's 95%-Democrats-lose-both-houses as too confident, buying 'at least one country stays under 10% vaccinated', betting against Yglesias on inflation). A recurring list, but the pundit buy/sell reasoning adds some genuine light forecasting analysis.
Why this score
Quality 56 · Solid. Solid-floor (56). A bare predictions list, lifted a little above the 2021 list (ACX-103, 52) by the Vox/Yglesias buy-sell-hold analysis; still low on standalone insight.
Claude’s paradigm shift 34 · Slight. Slight-Moderate (34). A recurring predictions exercise with some pundit-disagreement reasoning; no novelty.
Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. 1 — a personal predictions list; negligible real-world effect.