Ukraine Warcasting

A three-part post on the 2022 Ukraine invasion through a forecasting lens. Part 1 surveys market predictions (Metaculus/Manifold/Polymarket) on Kyiv falling, WWIII, Putin's ouster. Part 2 compares market accuracy (Metaculus > Manifold; markets should standardize question wording). Part 3 grades pundits (Luttwak C, Karlin/Hanania B-, Alperovich B+, Cowen ???, the leftist 'invasion deniers' Tracey/Taibbi D-F) on their public Ukraine calls. The payoff (General Thoughts): nobody predicted BOTH the invasion AND the strong resistance; forecasting successes are usually less about being smart than about having a bias that luckily matched reality (the right-wing 'Russia Strong' culture-warriors nailed the invasion but flubbed the resistance); 'Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence.'

Quality 71 · Strong. Strong: a substantive, well-organized forecasting/accountability post with a genuine portable payoff (successes = a bias luckily matching reality; the invasion-vs-resistance asymmetry), though topical to the 2022 moment and partly a market/pundit roundup.

Claude’s paradigm shift 50 · Moderate. Notable: the 'nobody got both / success is a lucky bias-reality match' framing is a fresh, reusable forecasting-epistemics insight.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Minor/within-discourse: a timely forecasting commentary with no material footprint.