Mantic Monday 7/11/22
Read the original on Astral Codex Ten →
Summary
A shorter Mantic Monday. The best bit is the Dobbs update-timing puzzle: PredictIt/Metaculus barely moved on the leaked draft opinion but jumped ~15% for Democrats when Dobbs actually landed — a genuine Bayesian oddity (if the markets were 95% sure the reversal would happen, why the big update on the event?), with candidate explanations (dumb latecomers, or the coincident Nate Silver Senate forecast). Also the perennial Trump-2024-nomination-invincibility (with the nice 'would Liz Cheney actually take that formal bet?' framing), the Swift Centre launch (Future Fund/SBF regrant), Musk-Twitter deal markets, and short links (COVID ensemble forecasts, the East African Federation).
Why this score
Quality 63 · Strong. Solid-plus / low-Strong (63). The Dobbs update-timing puzzle and the Cheney-bet framing give it some standalone value, but it's a lighter, shorter monthly roundup than the meatier Mantic Mondays.
Claude’s paradigm shift 42 · Moderate. Moderate (42). Reports and lightly analyzes a fast-moving space.
Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. 1 — a forecasting roundup; negligible real-world effect.