Announcement of a $20,000 Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants round, run with Manifold/Manifund as a low-stakes test of impact certificates before a possible ACX-Grants impact-cert round. Beyond the admin it carries real pedagogical content: a clean walkthrough of how impact markets work — creators can ignore the machinery and just get funded; accredited investors buy shares hoping Scott's Sept-1 'oracular funding' (3x invested, capped at $20k, distributed by his valuation ratio) makes them profitable; the anti-munchkin and refund clauses — plus an FAQ that candidly addresses the FTX/Future-Fund entanglement and the unresolved legality of impact markets ('start the project, comply as best we can, see what happens'). Fundamentally a mechanism-announcement, held to the announcement/craft tier on A.

Quality 54 · Solid. Solid-floor (54). An announcement, but a lucid and honest one that actually teaches the impact-cert mechanism and its legal/financial caveats — above the bare-admin floor yet well under essay territory; impact and novelty live in RWI/B, not A.

Claude’s paradigm shift 30 · Slight. Slight (30). Impact certificates were a genuinely novel funding mechanism being trialled, but the post announces/explains rather than originating the idea.

Real-world impact 3 · Moderate. 3 — this round helped seed Manifund/Manifold's impact-market as a going concern (real dollars, a durable platform), a concrete niche outcome; matches the ACX-Grants announcements scored RWI3 for real disbursed money / durable orgs.

Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants