A Mantic Monday forecasting roundup. The best items: the LK-99 superconductor 'autopsy' — Scott argues the markets were dumb (tracked media hype, not expert opinion; NO-bettors were superforecasters/celebrities, YES-bettors were randos; he bet NO and profited), reinforcing that 'either a prediction market is good, or you can make free money'; the Salem/CSPI tournament results, where Scott notes the top-20 were all equally accurate and what separated 1st from 20th was meta-skills (speed, money-parking/compounding, anticorrelating with rivals, predicting other players, rules-lawyering) — so traditional forecasting tournaments may beat market tournaments at identifying superforecasters; plus prediction portfolios (mutual-funds-for-predictions), Wingman.wtf flight-delay markets, and links. Solid roundup.

Quality 64 · Strong. Strong/solid edge: elevated above the roundup floor by the LK-99 hype-not-expertise analysis and the Salem meta-skills breakdown; still a curation.

Claude’s paradigm shift 42 · Moderate. Moderate: sharp observations (markets track hype; market-tournaments select for meta-skills) but a topical roundup.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Within-discourse: informs the forecasting community; modest reach.

Mantic Monday 8/28/23