Mantic Monday 2/19/24
Read the original on Astral Codex Ten →
Summary
A Mantic Monday roundup, meatier than the bare floor. The Humans-vs-Bots Manifold tournament; a FutureSearch AI-forecaster deep-dive (the Prospera-population example where it nails a base rate but skips the obvious current-population step; the Nikki-Haley base-rate confusion; 'beats most human forecasters'); Vitalik Buterin's vision of AIs swarming micro-subsidized prediction markets, which Scott extends into a concrete 'search engine of the future' (pay 0.01 ETH, competing forecasting bots answer in seconds, an AI auto-resolves later); and the Manifold 'Bet On Love'/Aella dating-show postrat production. Substantive AI-prediction-market content.
Why this score
Quality 65 · Strong. Strong/solid edge: above the roundup floor for the FutureSearch deep-dive and the Vitalik/AI-prediction-market 'search engine of the future' extension; still a curation.
Claude’s paradigm shift 44 · Moderate. Moderate: the AI-swarm-prediction-market-as-search-engine framing is a sharp extension, but embedded in a roundup.
Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Within-discourse: informs the forecasting community; modest reach.