Mantic Monday 5/13/24

A substantive Mantic Monday. The CFTC's new resolution reclassifying elections/awards as 'gaming' to ban them by default (Scott's 'banning things because they create work for the agency' critique, and the perennial UK-does-it-fine points); Manifold's pivot to a play-money-plus-real-money 'sweepstakes' model (with the postcard-free-money loophole); the GJP superhindcasting-COVID-origins report (74% zoonosis, the client-feedback-biasing question, the 'rationale-shaped hole'); and the strongest section, 'Notes From A Local Optimum' — a genuinely thoughtful reflection on whether forecasting has stalled (Austin Chen leaving Manifold, the EA critiques that forecasting is 'a game that distracts EAs,' OpenPhil promoting it), with Scott's split assessment and a new-hope vision (forecasting as a testing ground to build/validate forecasting AIs).

Quality 66 · Strong. Strong-floor (66, top Monday band). The CFTC analysis and the forecasting-local-optimum reflection are real standalone content; still a monthly digest.

Claude’s paradigm shift 44 · Moderate. Moderate (44). Reports and reflects on a fast-moving space.

Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. 1 — a forecasting roundup; negligible real-world effect.