Prediction Markets Suggest Replacing Biden

Scott's July-2024 prediction-market analysis of whether replacing Biden would help Democrats (Newsom/generic Dem +~10 pts; Harris neutral). Detailed market methodology (Metaculus/Manifold/PredictIt/Polymarket weighting, the conditional-probability caveat, PredictIt/Polymarket partisan bias), then an honest meta-reflection on why he failed to notice Biden's senility (reversed stupidity is not intelligence; the Republicans-cried-wolf dynamic), the white-lies-cause-disasters lesson, and a pivot to Sotomayor (she should retire now to avoid an RBG repeat).

Quality 68 · Strong. A competent, timely prediction-markets application with a genuinely good honest meta-reflection ('I was that stupid'; reversed stupidity is not intelligence; the white-lies-cause-disasters lesson; the Sotomayor 'what's the next fixable thing' pivot). Strong, held mid by its topical/dated nature (a July-2024 Biden post).

Claude’s paradigm shift 44 · Moderate. Moderate-minus - topical markets-application; the methodology + meta-lessons are sharp but not novel.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. 2 - topical political post; the prediction-markets-for-decisions advocacy is a recurring within-discourse theme.