Try The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest

Announcement opening the 2025 ACX/Metaculus forecasting contest ($10,000 prize). Brief but with Scott's voice: the abandoned hope of a fair Polymarket-vs-Metaculus comparison, his excitement about new forecasting bots being ranked against ACX's top forecasters, and the effort to curate a question set that's both fairly judgeable and of broad interest (no 'AI benchmark #44523'). A recurring contest announcement rather than a content post.

Quality 51 · Solid. Solid-floor (51). A contest announcement carried slightly above the bare floor by Scott's framing (bots, the Polymarket-comparison ambition, question-set curation); minimal standalone insight.

Claude’s paradigm shift 26 · Slight. Slight (26). A recurring contest announcement; no novelty.

Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. 1 — the annual ACX/Metaculus contest is a modest recurring forecasting-community fixture; this announcement post itself has negligible durable effect.