Scott Alexander, curated
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Vote On Values, Outsource Beliefs

Quality
70
Strong
Claude Shift
54
Moderate
RWI
2
of 10

Summary

An essay on social impact bonds (a corporation funds solving a problem like crime, and the government pays it from the savings — zero taxpayer risk), which Scott frames as a form of futarchy ('vote on values, bet on beliefs'): the government votes on values, the corporation bets on beliefs with money riding on it. Lists exciting possibilities (insurers paid from reduced ER visits, universities from increased tax revenue), notes the reason we wait until problems are dire (skepticism interventions work — DARE, welfare job-training as 'charade'), and lands the memorable 'greed is honest/incorruptible' reframe of 'greed is good' (capitalism = making greed work for good ends; prediction markets use greed to fix epistemology, social impact bonds to fix social problems) — plus the Ozy/Goldman bond-gaming joke.

Why this score

Quality 70 · Strong. High-Strong: a thoughtful, engaging econ-optimism essay with two genuine portable reframes (social-impact-bonds-as-futarchy; 'greed is honest, capitalism makes greed work for good ends'), but somewhat listy/speculative. 70.

Claude’s paradigm shift 54 · Moderate. The 'greed is honest' reframe + the futarchy-framing of social impact bonds are original. B54.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Within-discourse (futarchy/using-greed-for-good); no material reach. RWI2.