Predictions For 2017

The forward-looking companion to the calibration posts: ~105 numbered, probability-tagged predictions for 2017 across world events, Europe, economics, the Trump administration, communities, work, and personal life -- to be scored a year later. A pure prediction list with no analysis (the scoring comes separately), valuable mainly as a model of making one's beliefs falsifiable in public.

Quality 50 · Solid. Solid floor (50). Even less essay-content than the results post -- a bare list of forecasts with no commentary -- so it lands at the lower Solid band with the other low-craft ritual/housekeeping artifacts (cf. Product-Recommendations 50, D&D-changelog 52). Credit for modeling falsifiable public forecasting keeps it from dropping into Minor.

Claude’s paradigm shift 25 · Slight. Slight (25). A routine instance of the established make-public-predictions ritual; no novelty in its moment, even less framing than the results companion.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. 2 -- minor/within-blog. Same as the results companion: part of the public-forecasting ritual with small-community influence; no material footprint.