Five More Years

A five-year-predictions post (2018→2023) organized by domain, each with a substantive prose narrative plus numbered probabilistic predictions. Far richer than the bare annual lists — genuinely insightful and often prescient prose on AI ('spectacular achievements, plus nobody willing to say they signify anything broader'), the coming Democratic-Party crisis, religion-as-fargroup, the gig-economy 'Officialness Divide' / 'Ability-To-Circumvent-Regulations Age', crypto's regulated-into-uselessness path, and consumerized polygenic scores.

Quality 69 · Strong. Strong: a substantive, often-prescient forecasting essay well above the bare-prediction-list floor (cf. Predictions-2019 50), but still fundamentally a predictions post with a listy spine — held below 70. 69.

Claude’s paradigm shift 50 · Moderate. Sharp domain analyses in a predictions format; moderate novelty. B50.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. The prescient framings (AI-achievements-denial, the Officialness Divide) get referenced; the calibration practice is durable. RWI2.