What Intellectual Progress Did I Make In The 2010s?

A decade-retrospective mapping Scott's intellectual development, organized by topic and richly cross-linked to his own posts — effectively a guided tour of his major ideas. The throughline is predictive coding (his single biggest discovery — from Mysticism and Pattern-Matching through It's Bayes All The Way Up to Surfing Uncertainty, unified with Perceptual Control Theory), which recurs across psychedelics, mental-health models, the prodrome, placebo, attachment/cPTSD. Other strands: SSRIs and the effect-size puzzle; the autism/schizophrenia/transgender psychometrics he never cracked; behavioral genetics / Nurture Assumption / preschool; willpower (lampreys); diet and 'set point'; x-risk (Great Filter -> Don't Fear the Filter; turning the tide on AI risk); scientific-progress-slowing (Promising the Moon -> conceding -> 1960: The Year The Singularity Was Cancelled); cost disease; the replication crisis (Parapsychology -> Control Group -> growth-mindset debunking); ethics (Axiology/Morality/Law); politics (Outgroup -> Ideology Is Not The Movement; Friedman's Positive Account -> Archipelago); cultural evolution; conflict vs mistake; gender differences; Moloch; enlightenment; birth-order effects. Closes on the meta-point that blogging-for-feedback accelerated his learning, and a framing of much of it as MIRI-style 'deconfusion.'

Quality 70 · Strong. Strong (70). A rich, useful, reflective retrospective that maps his intellectual development and connects his major ideas (the predictive-coding throughline; the deconfusion framing) and serves as an excellent index to his best work. Held at mid-Strong (and firmly, given tail-down) because it is fundamentally a catalog of already-published ideas rather than a new contribution — richer than the Five-Years-of-LessWrong retrospective (66), hence a bit higher.

Claude’s paradigm shift 48 · Moderate. Moderate (48). A retrospective synthesizing his own published work; the freshest parts are the meta-reflections (deconfusion; blogging-accelerates-learning).

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Minor (2). A personal/meta retrospective and index; it documents rather than drives, within the blog's readership.