Predictions For 2020

Scott's annual list of 100 calibrated probability predictions for 2020 (made April 2020), spanning coronavirus, politics, econ/tech, the blog, friends, professional, and personal life — each a numeric credence to be scored at year's end. Part of his long-running public-calibration practice (e.g. the COVID-death-toll bands, Trump re-election at 50%, vaccine-by-EOY at 50%).

Quality 53 · Solid. A valuable forecasting-practice artifact (public, pre-registered, later scored — good epistemic hygiene), but as a post it's a bare list of predictions, not a developed essay. Solid-low, consistent with the other annual predictions posts (~52).

Claude’s paradigm shift 30 · Slight. A recurring predictions-list format; minimal novelty. Slight.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Models good forecasting practice; a single year's list has little material effect. Within-blog influence.