Early Quarantine Note

The first of Scott's real-time COVID risk calculations (March 3, 2020): a Fermi estimate of Bay Area infection risk under best/median/worst case counts and doubling times, concluding it's probably worth waiting a week before quarantining a group house and reassessing. Careful, caveated, superseded by the sharper follow-ups.

Quality 56 · Solid. Solid, upper: genuinely useful real-time quantitative reasoning done transparently, but an early rough cut later refined; capped as an of-the-moment estimate. 56.

Claude’s paradigm shift 40 · Moderate. Slight/Moderate: applies standard Fermi/epidemic-growth reasoning, no new method. 40.

Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. A blog risk-estimate; no material reach. RWI 1.