A Mantic Monday forecasting roundup, meatier than the bare-roundup floor. Warcasting (Ukraine market updates), Aborcasting (the Roe-v-Wade-leak market reaction), 'What For-casting?' — Scott's semi-annual defense of prediction markets (the either-markets-match-any-expert-or-you-get-rich proof, and the argument that accuracy isn't the killer app: trust/aggregation/clarity and disintermediation are), and Discorcasting — the ACX Discord moderator-market manipulation natural experiment ($3,500 of real money couldn't hold a manipulation; the play-money crowd corrected it → evidence markets are manipulation-robust). Solid, with two genuinely substantive sections.

Quality 65 · Strong. Strong/solid edge: above the roundup floor for the prediction-markets-defense (disintermediation) and the manipulation-robustness natural experiment; still a curation.

Claude’s paradigm shift 44 · Moderate. Moderate: the disintermediation framing and the manipulation experiment are useful but the piece is a roundup.

Real-world impact 2 · Minor. Within-discourse: informs the forecasting community; modest reach.

Mantic Monday 5/9/22