Is It Time To Panic Yet? (3/8)

'Is It Time To Panic Yet?' (March 8): a more developed COVID model — triangulating official-to-real case ratios from cross-country death-rate differences and mutation-based estimates, assuming low/median/high growth rates, and projecting Bay Area infections with a falsifiable one-week sanity-check prediction. Numerate laymen's epidemiology done honestly.

Quality 62 · Strong. Strong, low: a careful, transparent, prediction-making quantitative piece that was genuinely valuable in the moment and models good forecasting hygiene; narrow and time-bound. 62.

Claude’s paradigm shift 42 · Moderate. Moderate-slight: solid application of epidemic reasoning, not novel method. 42.

Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. A blog forecast; no material reach. RWI 1.