Is It Time To Panic Yet? (3/15)

The March 15 follow-up: Scott scores his own prior week's predictions (Bay Area tracking the 'Low' scenario at 197 official cases vs his 170 low / 350 median), incorporates a raft of new official-to-real ratio estimates, revises his numbers downward, and flags where exponential extrapolation stops being valid. Forecasting with explicit accountability.

Quality 62 · Strong. Strong, low: the prediction-checking discipline (grading last week's forecast before updating) is exactly the good-forecasting virtue that makes this more than a hot take; still narrow and time-bound. 62.

Claude’s paradigm shift 42 · Moderate. Moderate-slight: standard method, exemplary practice. 42.

Real-world impact 1 · Negligible. A blog forecast; no material reach. RWI 1.